Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
