Is the Entertainment Fading? The Decline of the Goal Scoring
One of the biggest stories of the EPL this campaign is the decline of scoring in open-play scenarios and how clubs are finding goals more from set-pieces instead.
Comparing how goals have been scored to the initial 11 matches the prior season, we see 39 fewer scored in open play and an increase of 26 from team set-pieces and spot-kicks, leading to 13 fewer overall.
Examining the broader view, the number of shots clubs are making show an incredible 370 fewer in open play than at this stage previously.
Even with the significant rise in dead-ball scores, we've actually seen just two more shots generated from them excluding penalties, demonstrating how effective clubs have been at finding ways to convert from dead-ball chances.
Goal Averages Tell a Story
The 301 goals scored in 110 games to date works out at 2.74 goals per game, if this persists for the entire campaign would be the lowest for since 2020-21, since 2020-21 (2.69).
Yet merely under 200 goals scored in open play averages out 1.78 per fixture and is on course to be the least for 16 years, back in 2009-10 (1.76 per game).
The 2009-10 season is also the sole English top-flight campaign to see goals scored more frequently from dead-balls without spot-kicks than this season's rate of 0.77 per game (0.79 per game).
Which Teams Bear the Most Responsibility?
When it comes to goals scored from open play, Wolves have seen by far the biggest decline, netting just four in their first 11 fixtures, 10 fewer than this point the previous campaign.
Outside of Wolves, the Premier League's fall in open-play scoring is largely a London thing, with five out of the capital's seven sides scoring five or more fewer goals from open-play than the prior season.
In fairness, this is primarily due to their scoring many goals at the beginning of last season rather than them really struggling to convert in open-play the current term.
Conversely Man City have seen the largest rise, with almost every one of their 23 scores so far arriving in open-play.
Set-Piece Success
We've compared the promoted teams with the teams that went down that they superseded. Sunderland Sunderland have netted an additional three scores in open play than Southampton achieved in their opening 11 matches leading to relegation last season.
Regarding scoring from dead-ball situations (not counting penalties), Arsenal and the Blues have recorded the largest rise, with each team compensating for the five less goals that they've netted in open play with the same number from dead-ball situations.
Manchester United have netted twice as many goals from set-plays as they achieved in the 11 games the previous campaign prior to Ruben Amorim took charge, while the Black Cats again are better at scoring than the club they replaced that went down.
Manchester City don't seem to have got the memo about netting additional goals from set-plays, as they've recorded three fewer than the previous campaign, similar to Nottingham Forest, although that might be down to the altered approach they have tried to implement.
General Tendencies
Six sides – the Gunners, Chelsea, Fulham, the Magpies, Tottenham and the Hammers – are this term's primary examples by scoring fewer goals from open play and additional from set-plays, while Man City represent the unique club to defy the pattern so far by performing the exact opposite.
It will be interesting to see if sides carry on to rely so heavily on set-pieces as the season goes on or if they regain their general attacking flair and start netting increased totals in open play also.
