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The direst possible consequences of the global heating for the UK have been detailed by scientists, ranging from a scorching 4C rise in mean temperatures to a 2-metre rise in sea level. Another scenario envisions a plunge of 6C in temperatures following the failure of crucial Atlantic Ocean currents, which would severely impact food production and power requirements.

Plausible Outcomes, Not Predictions

These effects, some of which are associated with climate tipping points, are seen as improbable but plausible. The team stated that these scenarios addressed a shortfall in forecasting that had left the UK not ready for worst-case results.

"The worst-case scenarios we have outlined are not forecasts, but they are plausible," commented the lead researcher who directed the research. "The nation has been planning lacking the methods to plan for catastrophic outcomes. We've now supplied decision-makers what they need to plan for climate outcomes they hope never happen, but dare not dismiss."

A Suite of Harsh Climate Projections

A further series of dire projections details the possible scale of extreme weather between now and the close of the 2100s. These indicate that temperatures could rocket in particular seasons by up to 6C above historical levels, while precipitation could be three times normal levels.

The likelihood of the worst-case outcomes coming to pass cannot be precisely determined due to uncertainty about what steps will be implemented to address global heating and how the climate system will react. This approach was compared to defence planning or stress tests for economic stability.

Major Scenario Elements

• Severe Heating: Global temperatures rising well above 4C by 2100 could happen if climate action fails or if vicious cycles including the Amazon rainforest perishing emit its vast reserves of carbon. This would result in extreme and prolonged heatwaves and dry spells affecting the UK in summer.
• Ocean Circulation Failure: A key circulation system, the North Atlantic current, is losing strength and showing signs of collapse due to global heating. A collapse beginning in 2030 would lead to a six-degree temperature drop in the UK. "Crop production would face immense difficulties and water supplies would be drastically changed," noted the lead researcher.
• Sudden Ocean Inundation: A surge of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could happen if polar ice in the polar regions collapse rapidly, submerging low-lying areas. In contrast to the other scenarios, this possibility is already recognized by coastal engineers.
• Pollution Paradox: Temperatures could also be pushed higher by about 0.75C if industrial aerosols is sharply cut. This counterintuitive effect occurs because pollution particles from industrial activity reflect solar radiation from warming the ground.

Building Resilience Against the Extreme

These dire projections could be used to inform the construction of major projects, such as housing developments, energy plants and water management networks. Awareness of these future hazards could also speed the drive to slash greenhouse gas emissions.

The study created the severe projections using a combination of observed and historical experience, digital projections and climate physics. These outcomes do not take into account international cascading effects such as the global food shortages and resource wars.

The research was initiated as part of a government’s climate resilience programme. Independent analyses have stated that not enough attention was being paid to catastrophic yet improbable risks.

The government's climate advisors has said that the UK needs to "adapt to 2C" and examine the dangers for four degrees. Previous adaptation plans have been labeled being "inadequate" by environmental groups.

A national response said: "Global warming is at the core of our national priorities, both preparing for impacts and establishing itself as a low-carbon economy. It is vital that the UK is resilient for the effects."