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For a brief period, Trump seemed to embrace a resolute stance concerning the Ukrainian conflict. After making threats of "serious ramifications" last August should Putin continued hindering truce discussions, Trump eventually introduced considerable penalties on Russia's biggest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move significantly hindered the Russian leader's ability to support his military invasion in the region.

Yet, via his newly presented 28-point peace proposal for the conflict, which was developed by US and Russian officials excluding Ukraine's or EU input, Trump has apparently gone back to his pro-Putin position.

Rewarding Military Action

This proposal would in practice benefit Putin for invading Ukraine while leaving Ukraine's political freedom in jeopardy. Despite ringing statements that "The nation's sovereignty will be confirmed", much of the initiative in reality undermine that essential sovereignty. Seen as a Kremlin dream would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his corporate background, Trump seems to view the situation in Ukraine as a mere territorial dispute, like giving Russia a portion of Ukraine's territory will satisfy the president. But, Russia's war is not merely about occupying a damaged area of industrial-devastated territory in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's obvious desire to destroy it so it stops functions as an appealing example for the Russian people of the accountable government that his growing authoritarian rule prevents them.

Territorial Concessions

Although freezing in status the currently split oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the plan would compel Ukraine to surrender the entire Donetsk region. In addition to benefiting Russia with territory that its forces have been failed to capture in exceeding a decade of fighting, this concession would make Ukraine's defenses critically weakened.

Donetsk is the site of the nation's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the well-established defensive positions that represent a critical impediment to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine leave these fortifications, giving Russian forces a clear path to Kyiv if he subsequently choose to restart the war.

Military Limitations

Additionally, in a move that would facilitate renewed conflict easier for Russia, Trump would require Ukraine to diminish the scale of its military from their existing approximately 800,000 soldiers to a cap of six hundred thousand. Importantly, the proposal sets no equivalent restrictions on Russia's military.

Seemingly as a concession to Putin's efforts to portray the nation's chosen by the people government as radicals, the proposal states: "Any Nazi doctrine and activities must be rejected and banned." Apparently to underscore this point, it requires that "Ukraine will hold elections in three months" of a peace deal. Meanwhile, Trump sets no requirement that the Russian leader risk his authoritarian rule by conducting votes in his own country.

Protection Guarantees

Certainly, the plan makes the Russian Federation promise not to "invade bordering nations" and to "enshrine in law its policy of peaceful relations towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". However considering that the Russian leadership has violated similar accords in the previous instances – including the 1994 agreement, in which Russia promised to respect Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for giving up its former Soviet atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia committed to a halt in fighting and a restoration of occupied land in eastern Ukraine to the government – how should the international community believe this commitment on this occasion?

For this reason Ukraine has been so insistent on international security guarantees. While the proposal promises a "strong coordinated armed reaction" if the Russian Federation restart its military campaign, and states that "The nation will receive strong defense commitments", the particulars include fuzzy to concerning. The proposal would not just prevent the nation alliance membership but also preclude alliance nations from positioning forces on Ukraine's soil, effectively blocking the reassurance force, presumptively commanded by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to deter Putin from restoring his weakened forces, restocking, and resuming aggression.

Global Reaction

A separate side agreement reportedly would provide Ukraine with a similar to NATO security guarantee, in which any future "significant, planned, and ongoing armed attack" by the Russian Federation on the country "shall be regarded as an attack endangering the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." That suggests a military response. Yet unlike a strong Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's primary protection against additional Russian aggression – the success of the supplementary deal would rely on the willingness of Western powers, including the US administration, to respond militarily to Putin's attacks, an action they have {not